THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14
Buffalo at New England
The Patriots will try to make it 12 straight wins over the Bills when Monday Night Football kicks off from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.
Bill Belichick’s squad has dominated the Bills, winning 11 straight (9-2 ATS) by an average score of 29-9. The games were closer last season when the Patriots had Matt Cassel at QB instead of Tom Brady, but New England still prevailed 20-10 in Buffalo as a 3½-point favorite in November and then won 13-0 in the season-finale, covering as a 5½-point chalk. The last two times Brady faced the Bills was in the Patriots’ 16-0 campaign in 2007, and New England outscored Buffalo 94-17.
Buffalo opened the 2008 season 5-1 (4-2 ATS), but fell out of contention in a hurry, losing eight of its last 10 games (3-7 ATS). The Bills added outspoken WR Terrell Owens from the Cowboys in the offseason, but he only played in the Hall of Fame Game to kickoff the preseason and sat out the rest of the exhibition campaign with a foot injury.
The Bills fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert on Sept. 4 after the first-team offense managed just three points in 15 preseason series and head coach Dick Jauron brought in former Bills’ QB Alex Van Pelt to coach the offense. One weapon the offense will be missing tonight is RB Marshawn Lynch, who is suspended the first three games after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor gun charge in March.
New England lost Brady to a season-ending knee injury in the first half of the 2008 opener against the Chiefs, yet the team rallied around Cassel and still managed to go 11-5 (9-7 ATS), falling just short of reaching the playoffs. Now Brady is back under center looking to recapture his form from 2007 when he tossed a record-setting 50 TD passes, led the Patriots to an unbeaten regular season and won the MVP.
Buffalo is on ATS slides of 3-7 overall and 1-5 against the AFC East, but the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five September contests and 4-0 ATS in their last four season openers. New England is on ATS runs of 4-1 on Monday nights and 36-16-1against AFC East opponents, but it is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 at home and 0-7 ATS in its last seven at home as a favorite of 10½ points or more.
The Bills have stayed under the posted total in 29 of 43 games as a road ‘dog, five of six season-openers and four of six against the AFC East. The Patriots have topped the total in six of seven overall, four of five against the AFC and nine of 12 season openers. Finally, the under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in this series and 9-1 in the last 10 in Foxborough.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
San Diego at Oakland
Like New England, the Chargers will also be looking to make it 12 straight wins over an opponent when they travel to Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum to battle the AFC West rival Raiders in the second game of a Monday night doubleheader.
San Diego finished 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS) in 2008, but won AFC West thanks to a four-game season-ending winning streak (3-1 ATS). In the playoffs, the Chargers beat the Colts 23-17 as a 1½-point home underdog in the wild-card round then went to Pittsburgh and lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champs in the divisional round as 6½-point ‘dogs.
The Chargers inked QB Philip Rivers to a long-term deal over the summer, coming off his career-best 2008 numbers that featured 4,009 yards passing, 34 TDs and an NFL-best 105.5 passer rating. RB LaDainian Tomlinson ran for a career-low 1,110 yards last season and 12 TDs, his lowest number of scores since his rookie campaign. Defensively, Norv Turner’s squad will be looking to improve on its No. 25 ranking from a season ago.
The Raiders have posted an NFL-worst 24-72 record since reaching the Super Bowl in January 2003. They have lost at least 11 games in a record six straight seasons, including last year’s 5-11 (7-9 ATS) mark. On the bright side, former top overall pick JaMarcus Russell had an 88.5 passer rating in his final seven starts last year, going 3-4 with seven TDs and four INTs.
Oakland has been the center of off-field controversy this year with head coach Tom Cable being investigated for allegedly assaulting defensive assistant coach Randy Hanson and newly acquired DL Richard Seymour failing to show up in Oakland after the trade a week ago. Seymour has said he will be in uniform tonight.
San Diego has beaten the Raiders 11 straight times (10-1 ATS) and scored a 28-18 win in northern California last season as a nine-point favorite, its seventh consecutive spread-cover in Oakland. In December in San Diego, the Chargers got an easy 34-7 victory as a 9½-point chalk, the 13th time in the last 16 meetings the favorite has cashed in this rivalry.
San Diego is on pointspread slides of 2-5 on the road, 2-5 as a favorite and 3-7 when laying 3½ to 10 points, but the Chargers are on ATS runs of 21-7-4 against division rivals and 19-7-1 against the AFC. Oakland is in several ATS ruts, including 17-35-1 at home, 7-19 as a home ‘dog, 0-7 on Mondays and 0-4 in season openers.
The Chargers have stayed below the posted total in seven of 11 against AFC teams and four of five on Mondays, but they’re otherwise on “over” runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road and 7-0 in September. The Raiders have topped the total in seven of eight September contests and four of five season openers, but they are on “under” streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 16-7-1 against the AFC West and 6-2 on Mondays. Finally, the “under” is 6-2-1 in the last nine Chargers-Raiders clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Colorado (82-62) at San Francisco (85-59)
The Rockies will try to put some more distance between themselves and the Giants when they open a three-game set in San Francisco with Jason Hammel (8-8, 4.37 ERA) on the hill opposite the Giants’ Tim Lincecum (13-5, 2.34).
Leading San Francisco by five games in the N.L. wild-card race, Colorado will try to get back on the winning track after losing two straight in San Diego over the weekend, including Sunday’s 7-3 setback, coming on the heels of an eight-game winning streak. The Rockies are still on streaks of 62-31 overall, 44-20 against right-handed starters, 4-0 in series openers and 5-1 on Mondays, but they are just 1-5 in their last five roadies and 0-5 in their last five against winning teams.
The Giants snapped a four-game losing streak with Sunday’s 7-2 home win over the Dodgers. It was only the second time in 10 outings they scored more than three runs in a game. San Francisco is 6-2 in its last eight series openers and 21-7 in its last 28 at home against teams with winning road records, but the team is also on slides of 1-4 against the N.L. West and 1-4 at home.
The Rockies have won six of Hammel’s last eight outings, including Wednesday’s 4-3 win over the Reds in Colorado when he allowed two runs in 7 1/3 innings. His last road start was in San Francisco on Aug. 30 when he gave up two runs in five innings but the Rockies lost 9-5. Hammel has lost all three outings against the Giants this season, despite only allowing a combined five runs in 17 innings (2.65 ERA). Colorado is just 2-6 in Hammel’s last eight starts on the road, but they are 10-4 in his last 14 when he gets four days of rest.
Lincecum is an astonishing 8-1 at home with a 1.83 ERA, and he’s held the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. The reigning Cy Young winner hasn’t pitched since Sept. 3, when he held the Phillies to two runs in seven innings but lost 2-1. Lincecum allowed no earned runs in three of his last five home starts, including an Aug. 28 outing against the Rockies when he blanked them on four hits over eight innings of a 2-0 win. The Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum’s last eight starts against N.L. West foes and 4-0 in his last four on Monday.
Colorado has topped the total in four of Hammel’s last five roadies and five of six when he faces a winning team, while as a team the Rockies are on “under” runs of 7-2 on the road, 6-1 overall and 8-3 against divisional rivals. It’s a plethora of “unders” when Lincecum pitches, including 8-2 overall, 6-0 against winning teams and 4-1 within the division, while the Giants have stayed below the number in seven of their last 11 overall. Finally, the “under” is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams at AT&T Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (86-56) at N.Y. Yankees (92-52)
Division leaders clash for a quick make-up game in Yankee Stadium as the Angels send Cy Young Award candidate Jered Weaver (15-5, 3.71 ERA) to the mound to face the Yankees’ Joba Chamberlain (8-5, 4.45).
Los Angeles just completed a six-game homestand with a 5-1 record, including Sunday’s 3-2 win over the White Sox. The Angels are riding several positive streaks, including 27-12 on the road, 56-27 overall, 47-23 against A.L. East teams and 20-8 in series openers.
New York is 5-2 on its current 10-game homestand and used an eight-run inning to blow out the Orioles 13-3 on Sunday. The Yankees have dominated the league the last three months, riding streaks of 41-15 overall, 42-15 as a home favorite, 19-7 in series openers and 37-15 against right-handed starters in Yankee Stadium.
The Angels have won each of the last four meetings with New York, but they are just 1-4 in the last five clashes in the Big Apple.
Weaver is 6-3 with a 4.98 ERA on the road this season, and lately he’s been dominant, going 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts. On Wednesday, the right-hander allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings as the Angels beat Seattle 6-3 in Anaheim. In his last roadie, Weaver held the Royals to one run in seven innings of a 2-1 victory.
Weaver has made two starts against the Yankees this season, allowing a combined eight runs (seven earned) on eight hits in 12 innings (6.75 ERA), with L.A. winning 14-8 at home after losing 10-9 in New York. Behind Weaver, the Angels are on runs of 16-5 overall, 9-3 when he goes in a series opener and 10-4 against A.L. East teams.
Chamberlain has been limited to just three innings of action in each of his last three starts, allowing two runs in each outing. Against the Rays on Wednesday, he gave up the two runs on three hits in three innings, and the Yankees went on to win 4-2. He’s made one career start against the Angels, allowing five runs (four earned) on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-6 loss back on July 10. With Chamberlain on the hill, New York is on streaks of 16-6 overall, 18-4 when he starts at home, 24-9 when he’s favored and 8-3 when he faces winning teams.
With Weaver pitching, the Angels are on “over” runs of 11-3-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 5-0 in series openers, 4-1 on Monday, 9-3-1 as a favorite, 8-3-2 against the A.L. East and 5-0 against the Yankees. As a team, however, the Angels are on “under” streaks of 14-3-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 8-0-1 as a favorite and 4-0-1 against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Yankees have topped the total in 10 of Chamberlain’s 14 starts overall and five of his six at home, while as a team they have gone over the total in 19 of 30 against the A.L. West and eight of 12 as a favorite.
Finally, the over is 21-7 in the last 28 clashes between these squads and 5-0 in the last five in the Bronx.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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